Reading Expected Goals: A Practical Guide
Expected goals (xG) estimates the quality of a chance based on historical conversion rates for similar shots.
What xG tells you
It measures the volume and quality of chances a team creates and concedes, smoothing out the noise of finishing variance.
Common mistakes
- Judging a single match on xG alone — samples are small.
- Ignoring game state and red cards.
Used across a season, xG is a powerful predictor of underlying team strength.